更新时间：04-28 （qiaohao）提供原创文章
摘要: 本文在2008年爆发全球性金融危机大背景下，考察我国货币供应量的变化对物价水平的影响。以实证分析的方法，分析了货币供应量M2和以CPI为主要衡量指标的物价水平之间的关系。本文以2008年10月划分金融危机前后，选取2008年10月至2010年12月的月度数据，并将其处理成定基比，运用ADF单位根检验，建立VAR模型然后进行Granger因果检验，脉冲响应函数和方差分解得出结论：货币供应量的变化是物价水平的变化的Granger原因并且能够部分解释物价的波动，由于金融危机后我国采取的是适度宽松的货币政策，因此货币供应量的增加对物价走高有影响。尽管稍有滞后，不过可以说明扩张性货币政策在物价调控上是有效的。
关键词：金融危机 M2 CPI VAR模型 Granger因果检验 脉冲响应函数 方差分解
Abstract:Based on the global financial crisis erupted in 2008, I focused on the influence of changes in the money supply on price level. With the method of empirical analysis, I analyzes the theoretical relationship between M2 and CPI, which is used as the main indexes of price level. I believe that October 2008 may be a reasonable divide for the financial crisis, so I try to make the monthly data from October,2008 to December ,2010 relative ratio with fixed base. By doing ADF unit root test, establishing VAR model , taking Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition, I come to the conclusion: changes in the money supply is the Granger reason of changes of price level and can partly explain the price fluctuations. Since our country adopts moderate looser monetary policy after the financial crisis, the money supply is influential on increasing prices. Although it slightly lags behind, but we can conclude that expansionary monetary policy is effective on the regulation of price.
Key words: financial crisis; M2; CPI; Granger causality test; VAR model; impulse response function; variance decomposition